Day 3: 15th December 2021
|| Theory and Evidence ||

How should we reason when our evidence falls short of complete proof? On one account, we should use probability. However, there is good evidence that even experts don't reason probabilistically. Moreover, it's not even clear what reasoning probabilistically would amount to, and whether it would be appropriate for situations where we are uncertain.

On another account, we choose the simplest, most elegant solution. This more often matches the way experts describe their own reasoning, but much further work is required see what simplicity or elegance is, and why it would be a reliable way to reason.